From a geopolitical perspective Belarus is more ready now to be seduced by the west that it ever was. Further postponing on action from the EU will only push the country into Russia – although or different reasons, similar to what happened with Moldova where Russia constitutes more and more the “escape pod”. The recent developments with the prices of oil supply show that the tension is increasing. We cannot, nonetheless, expect for Belarus to, single-handed and extremis, simply cuts bonds with Russia – winters are pretty cold in Belarus without Russian energy.