Mas as caixas de comentário mostram outra realidade. Mostram uma realidade duma sociedade em ponto rebuçado, pronta para explodir. Entre a total ignorância sobre ser a Belarus um país independente, forçado a uma maior dependência da Rússia por via das inconsequentes sanções que lhe são impostas, e o axioma primeiro da escola de relações internacionais de Varsóvia, em que tudo o que acontece à oriente do Bug (ou mesmo do Oder) é da responsabilidade de Moscovo, o condicionado useiro da caixa de comentário salta espumando a gritar “Rússia… Rússia…”

Este caso é paradigmático da ignorância de tudo o que se passa agora na Ucrânia. Ninguém de facto sabe seja o que for desse zona da Europa. Muitos não sabiam sequer localizar a Ucrânia no mapa, muitos ainda não sabem, mas são especialistas em geopolítica. Outros sem distinguir uma pistola dum regador conhecem tudo sobre misseis.

We can largely discuss the responsibility of Lukashenko’s regime in the crowding of this portion of the border, the Bruzgi Jungle, with thousands of pilgrims on the way to the promised Germany. Fact is most of those using the Minsk route into European Union now would eventually try their luck elsewhere. If you explain to those now living in Bruzgi that they are being instrumentalized by Lukashenko they may understand it. They may even agree with you. But they will not, for one second, stop being thankful to him for this opportunity to come closer the end of their path.

But it must be accepted that the situation in Belarus seems to have come to a stalemate. There is no need to actually arrest (as in court sentence, even if administrative arrest) or even detain (as in grabbed in the street or at home) everyone. The randomness and time discrepancy (more and more cases related to past actions are happening )of detentions and, from within those, of arrests, is precisely what allows to play the long game.

Big proclamations are always more likely to be hit in the face by a contradicting reality, but the events at Kyiv Square may as well be the last step into converting Belarusian opposition movement into something that intrinsically becomes part of society. The fact that Tikhanovskaya, nor Tsepkala or Kalesnikava, ever made it to Kyiv Square seems now irrelevant.

Maybe as a consequence of overconfidence or simply of not realising that the audience has developed more acute hearing capabilities, these adjustments sounded as if Siegfried just failed to grab Princess Odette and she smashed her face on the stage. The conductor Lukashenko rushed on to the stage to explain that a woman cannot have the main role in a country where the constitution is not adapted for a fragile woman.

The capability to force political change comes not from the size of the movement alone, but also from the perception that there are other people who would support the same ideas. Chenoweth is clear when she says that 3.5 per cent of the population, who are actively engaged in their respective movement for change, is needed for success to be assured: “do I, part of the 3.5 per cent, perceive that there are 3.49 per cent more out there?”

(…) at dawn on Monday the city awoke out of its lethargy of centuries with the warm, soft breeze of a great man dead and rotting grandeur. Only then did we dare go in without attacking the crumbling walls of reinforced stone, as the more resolute had wished, and without using oxbows to knock the main door off its hinges, as others had proposed, because all that was needed was for someone to give a push and the great armored doors that had resisted the bombards of William Dampier during the building’s heroic days gave way (…)

From a geopolitical perspective Belarus is more ready now to be seduced by the west that it ever was. Further postponing on action from the EU will only push the country into Russia – although or different reasons, similar to what happened with Moldova where Russia constitutes more and more the “escape pod”. The recent developments with the prices of oil supply show that the tension is increasing. We cannot, nonetheless, expect for Belarus to, single-handed and extremis, simply cuts bonds with Russia – winters are pretty cold in Belarus without Russian energy.