The most recent hiccup, let’s call it hiccup, of von der Leyen has three quick readings to be made. For those not aware the European Commission published a statement by its president announcing 100 thousand dead Ukrainian soldiers, plus 20 thousand dead civilians.

Mas as caixas de comentário mostram outra realidade. Mostram uma realidade duma sociedade em ponto rebuçado, pronta para explodir. Entre a total ignorância sobre ser a Belarus um país independente, forçado a uma maior dependência da Rússia por via das inconsequentes sanções que lhe são impostas, e o axioma primeiro da escola de relações internacionais de Varsóvia, em que tudo o que acontece à oriente do Bug (ou mesmo do Oder) é da responsabilidade de Moscovo, o condicionado useiro da caixa de comentário salta espumando a gritar “Rússia… Rússia…”

Este caso é paradigmático da ignorância de tudo o que se passa agora na Ucrânia. Ninguém de facto sabe seja o que for desse zona da Europa. Muitos não sabiam sequer localizar a Ucrânia no mapa, muitos ainda não sabem, mas são especialistas em geopolítica. Outros sem distinguir uma pistola dum regador conhecem tudo sobre misseis.

Durante todo este tempo ouvimos repetidas vezes da boca da senhora Von Der Leyen, cuja função deveria ser a gerir a comissão e não de fazer declarações de orientação política, a apelo aos valores partilhados entre a UE e a Ucrânia. Nunca, no entanto, foram especificados quais são esses valores.

Oksana Pokalchuk, head of Amnesty International in Ukraine presented her resignation (…) after “representatives of the Ukrainian office [doing] everything they could to prevent this [report] from being made public”. In her defence for trying to silence the organisation she claims to be so proud of she has worked with, Pokalchuk states that those who have “not felt this pain” of living in a country “invaders are tearing to pieces”, “don’t understand what it’s like to condemn an ​​army of defenders”. The argument of Mrs Pokalchuck is that the eventual war crimes of committed by the Ukrainian army should not be investigated.

But even before this last hype, on November 11th, the Press Secretary of the Ukrainian president came forward to state that the presidency of Ukraine has no exact information on the number of Russian troops that might be, so gave notice the Russian version of the Deutsche Welle. The government official goes as far as to state that “[it] remains an open question why the American media disseminate such information, whether it is true.”

We can largely discuss the responsibility of Lukashenko’s regime in the crowding of this portion of the border, the Bruzgi Jungle, with thousands of pilgrims on the way to the promised Germany. Fact is most of those using the Minsk route into European Union now would eventually try their luck elsewhere. If you explain to those now living in Bruzgi that they are being instrumentalized by Lukashenko they may understand it. They may even agree with you. But they will not, for one second, stop being thankful to him for this opportunity to come closer the end of their path.

But it must be accepted that the situation in Belarus seems to have come to a stalemate. There is no need to actually arrest (as in court sentence, even if administrative arrest) or even detain (as in grabbed in the street or at home) everyone. The randomness and time discrepancy (more and more cases related to past actions are happening )of detentions and, from within those, of arrests, is precisely what allows to play the long game.

Big proclamations are always more likely to be hit in the face by a contradicting reality, but the events at Kyiv Square may as well be the last step into converting Belarusian opposition movement into something that intrinsically becomes part of society. The fact that Tikhanovskaya, nor Tsepkala or Kalesnikava, ever made it to Kyiv Square seems now irrelevant.

Maybe as a consequence of overconfidence or simply of not realising that the audience has developed more acute hearing capabilities, these adjustments sounded as if Siegfried just failed to grab Princess Odette and she smashed her face on the stage. The conductor Lukashenko rushed on to the stage to explain that a woman cannot have the main role in a country where the constitution is not adapted for a fragile woman.

Возможность продавить политические перемены обусловлены не только размером протестного движения, но и пониманием того, что существуют и другие люди, которые поддержат твои идеи. Ченовет однозначно утверждает, что все участники координированных акций, в которых будут участвовать 3,5% населения, должны четко осознавать, что помимо них, есть еще 3,49% населения, готовые в этой деятельности участвовать.

The capability to force political change comes not from the size of the movement alone, but also from the perception that there are other people who would support the same ideas. Chenoweth is clear when she says that 3.5 per cent of the population, who are actively engaged in their respective movement for change, is needed for success to be assured: “do I, part of the 3.5 per cent, perceive that there are 3.49 per cent more out there?”

(…) at dawn on Monday the city awoke out of its lethargy of centuries with the warm, soft breeze of a great man dead and rotting grandeur. Only then did we dare go in without attacking the crumbling walls of reinforced stone, as the more resolute had wished, and without using oxbows to knock the main door off its hinges, as others had proposed, because all that was needed was for someone to give a push and the great armored doors that had resisted the bombards of William Dampier during the building’s heroic days gave way (…)

From a geopolitical perspective Belarus is more ready now to be seduced by the west that it ever was. Further postponing on action from the EU will only push the country into Russia – although or different reasons, similar to what happened with Moldova where Russia constitutes more and more the “escape pod”. The recent developments with the prices of oil supply show that the tension is increasing. We cannot, nonetheless, expect for Belarus to, single-handed and extremis, simply cuts bonds with Russia – winters are pretty cold in Belarus without Russian energy.

Mazur, we are informed by the Unian, works for the Commissioner for Human Rights in the scope of the Ukrainian parliament. A noble mission, in fact.
Meanwhile he is one of the leaders of the Ukrainian National Assembly, of which the Ukrainian People’s Self-Defense Party is the paramilitary branch. The UNA is a far-right political formation and the UNSO is known for it’s participation in multiple post-soviet conflicts.

Further down the text we can read that “[the] main anti-Semitic crime observed is that of vandalism, including desecration of graves, synagogues and memorials to victims of the Holocaust, with the methods including the breaking of windows, arson or anti-Semitic or neo-Nazi graffiti.”